Title: The Day After: What to expect in Post Islamic State Mosul
© 2016 The Author(s). Published by Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group
Author: Tallha Abdulrazaq and Gareth Stansfield
Institution: Royal United Services Institute (RUSI)
Publication Date: May 2016
Keywords: Peshmerga, Shia militias, Saddam Hussein, Sharia, liberation
Key lessons in the document
Abdulrazaq and Stansfield make the point that if the “day after” in Mosul is not carefully managed to some pre-defined yet flexible notion of “success”, then the result could be another round of low-scale insurgency leading to a violent Sunni rebellion in subsequent years.
The authors also warn that any prospect of a Kurdish territorial annexation of eastern Mosul and significant parts of Nineveh could provoke serious opposition among Sunni Arabs and Turkmens, as well as among Shia militias, thus complicating any attempts to bring stability to the post-conflict environment.